C O M P A N Y N E W S C O L L E C T I O N 15.09.2005
S o urce: Tho m s o n Financial Da tas tream
Further data adding to Alvesco’s safety profile Positive sentiment on investors’ day Good news on winter tires and the US OE initiative slowly pays-off! Renewed guidance leaves us waiting on the Grande Raising fair value to €16 from €15 –maintaining buy Higher guidance for 2006 and 2007, encouraging signals Buy from raw materials and Japan growth perspectives Setback against Ares – but no indication for further proceedings Keppra – monotherapy indication now probable, but only in EU
Internationale Automobil-Ausstellung (until 25.9.)
Further data adding to Alvesco’s safety profile
____ Partner Sanofi has published a result on an Alvesco safety trial in asthma-patients that checked the impact of Alvesco on endogeneous cortisol production.
____ High dose Alvesco did not influence this parameter, while the higher dose of competitor Fluticasone did after 29 days.
____ Long-term safety in terms of leaving endogeneous cortisol production unaffected is particularly important when it comes to expanding the product’s use in children. Inhaled corticosteroids are the gold standard of asthma treatment, but are particularly under-utilized in the US because of potential side-effects (negative impact on length growth). ____ The data will help to position the compound as the alternative with the best side-effect profile with similar efficacy. The latest trial did not confirm the safety advantage for local side-effects since Alvesco has been used at extremely high doses and the duration was potentially too short to achieve statistical significance.
____ The share does not appear too expensive, but the market risk of Alvesco and Daxas is currently viewed as high.
____ The data confirms earlier findings. We still believe that the Alvesco family
____ We would view the upcoming R&D-day (October 12) as a short-term opportunity for some limited upside, potentially sparked by some reassuring news on Daxas, an update on earlier stage products, but particularly if Soraprazan still appears to be alive.
Positive sentiment on investors’ day
____ CKB held its annual investors’ day yesterday, with an overall positive sentiment. ____ In our view, management seems to have become more confident on its FY 05 underlying ROE target of at least 8%. ____ Most relevant news was the reduced outlook for risk provisions in 2005 (down to €688m from €750m). CEO Mr. Müller also said that he feels fine with
current consensus dividend of €0.5 for 2005, which corresponds to double the level of 2004.
____ The reduced outlook for risk provisions is mainly due to a reduced level in the SME segment, where risk provisions are expected to go down to €405m in 2005 from €601m in 2004. Management indicated that even the reduced level is still based on rather conservative assumptions. Furthermore, they indicated that there is further significant downside next year due to likely provisioning reductions for commercial real estate and the renewable energy sector. Both sectors account for about €150m risk provisions out of the €405m forecast. ____ Further relevant issues: Share buy back currently not on the agenda, Essenhyp regarded as an attractive asset, but no change on the agenda currently; DAB bank viewed as an interesting target, but still no indication from Unicredito if it is for sale; Q3 trading income seems to have recovered from the weak Q2 level.
____ We are placing our earnings estimates and fair value under review. Rough guidance: Underlying earnings forecast 2005-2007e up by about 5%, new fair value up to €22.0-23.0 from €21.0.
____ We reiterate our buy recommendation and believe that the positive
provisioning outlook will increase confidence in FY 05 management targets.
Management statements also indicate solid Q3 05 results. ____ We regard the outcome of the German elections as a short-term risk for CBK due to its high domestic exposure.
Thomas Rothäusler, Dipl.- Telephone: + 49 (69) 7134 - 5132
Good news on winter tires and the US OE initiative slowly pays-off!
____ Winter tires have seen a strong seasonal ramp-up. Filling the low inventories has driven this year’s early season volumes up by 40% (!!) so far. Of course, this is set to come down in the month to come once the inventories are full ahead of the season.
____ OE initiative in the US of raising the market share to some 20% starts to pay-off at the aftermarket. Initial statistics show a high loyalty rate at the first replacement cycle, which is crucial to increase the retail market share and thus pricing power in the US. The strategy in the US seems to be paying off. ____ New pricing round is to become effective soon.
____ On the back of the a.m. news, we see the company clearly exceeding last year’s earnings. Fears that this might be too ambitious in the light of the raw material pricing development do not seem to be materializing.
____ Valuation remains at attractive levels (EV/EBITDA of 4.8x on the basis of 2006 earnings) and it is easily possible to justify fair values clearly beyond €70.
____ We reiterate the buy rating with a fair value of €73. Renewed guidance leaves us waiting on the Grande Punto
____ CEO Mr. Marchionne indicated in a very emphatic style that the group is on track to match the targets of the industrial plan. ____ The successful start of the new Grande Punto is crucial if Fiat Auto is to have any chance of returning to profitability. Strict earnings enhancement programs have been announced to bring both CNH and Iveco to the competitors’
profitability levels. ____ The convertendo of €3bn is set to become effective September 20
____ Investing in Fiat is still a huge bet on turning around the car business and increasing the earnings of Iveco and CNH. The biggest obstacle in Fiat’s way is seen in the Auto’s brand image. ____ The most urgent financial/liquidity problems seem to have been solved following the convertendo of €3bn and the Italenergia/EDF deal with a further relief of €1.8bn.
____ Fiat is still not much of a valuation play but a story of belief in reinstalling profitability; according to the management’s industrial plan this would be equal to an EPS of €1.25.
____ We continue to rate the share neutral as we believe the Grande Punto has a
decent chance of getting off to a promising start. A positive rating would require a
more sustainable move at Autos and significantly higher earnings at both Iveco and CNH.
B E T E I L I G U N G S A G 2 , 3 , 6 , 7 , 8
Raising fair value to €16 from €15 –maintaining buy
____ After the Q3 results yesterday and the conference call with the CEO, we raise the fair value for DBAG to €16 per share up from €15. We have also adjusted our
2004/05 net profit forecast upwards to €44m from €36m, given that at 9-month stage DBAG already reported ca. €40m in net profits. For 2005/06 earnings, we have upgraded net profits from €28m to €36.8m.
____ DBAG aims to increase the recurring revenues through launching a private equity fund #5 with an expected volume of €300-350m on which the company expects to earn the same margin, i.e. 2%, as it is already charging for its fund #4. Demand seems to be strong for this product and eventually DBAG will evolve more and more into a fund producer, thus having a lower volatility P+L.
____ The CEO stated that DBAG is likely over the next few years to earn net ROE of 15% at least on the equity invested, so that DBAG is likely to command a premium over its NAVPS, which has triggered us to upgrade the fair value to €16.
____ All in all good news from DBAG. The company expects to be a major player
again in the German mid-cap MBO market, where opportunities are still plenty.
Given that DBAG already made positive MBO investments, chances of high profile exits through trade sale or IPOs are good. Buy. Higher guidance for 2006 and 2007, encouraging signals from raw materials and Japan growth perspectives
____ Elring Klinger has left us with a strong impression at the IAA analysts’ conference: ____ New steel contracts have been concluded at lower prices than the preceding ones.
____ The company has raised its guidance for 2006 and 2007 EPS by 5% each. ____ Broken ties at Japanese supplier networks (Keiretsu) offer huge growth potential. Transferring Elring’s world market share at gaskets to the Japanese production volume would result in some 4-5m additional gaskets.
____ Following the sound statements of the company, we have increased our earnings assumption for the OE business and the EPS forecast for 2006 rises from €2.46 to €2.60; the respective move for 2007 is €2.64 to €2.87. ____ The DCF-derived fair value rises from €35.5 to €38.00.
____ On the back of the higher earnings guidance, the share is becoming increasingly important from a valuation point of view again. Versus our 2007e forecast of €2.87, the new fair value of €38 would represent a PER of just 13.2x, a level which is above the sector average of 10.6x, but clearly reflecting the company’s strong earnings position.
____ We strongly reiterate our buy recommendation with a new fair value of €38. Setback against Ares – but no indication for further proceedings Fair value: 19.10
___ MVV's 51% subsidiary SW Kiel lost a court proceeding against Ares Energie AG and now has to pay some €1.4m. ____ Further proceedings worth some €15m are still pending. ____ Ares is considering further proceedings worth up to €60m.
____ The €1.4m were already fully provisioned and have no earnings impact. ____ Subject of €15m proceedings is loss-sharing from a former JV between SW Kiel and Ares Energie AG. The bulk of these losses were generated before SW Kiel became shareholder in this JV, and MVV claims it is not responsible for these. As a result, provisions have not been built up yet and we see good chances that SW Kiel will win these proceedings. In a worst case, the financial impact on MVV Energie AG should not exceed a small single-digit €m amount, given that MVV holds just 51% in Kiel and the potential loss would be tax deductible. ____ In addition, Ares asserts that SW Kiel violated brand rights of Ares. We see an extremely small chance that Ares might succeed. However, the downside for MVV amounts to just €18m post minorities and taxes or some €0.36/share.
____ The stock now trades with a 5% discount to our fair value and is supported by a dividend yield of 4.1% right now.
____ All in all, the impact of these proceedings should be rather small, so further
share price weakness could provide opportunities to raise positions.
____ Based on the current share price, we keep our neutral rating. Keppra – monotherapy indication now probable, but only Fair value: €47.00 in EU
____ Keppra (anti-epileptic) has been proven to be non-inferior to standard therapy Carbamazepin in monotherapy of partial or generalized tonic-clonic seizures (epilepsy). (patients being seizure-free after six months). ____ This meets the requirements of the European authorities. The FDA, however,
would have required evidence that Keppra lengthens the period to the first seizure. The press release does not comment on this issue.
____ The trial outcome is an important milestone in reaching our peak sales expectation of about €850m, but represents the most anticipated scenario. ____ In the US, we expect clinicians to use the product off-label, as the side-effect profile of Keppra is clearly superior.
____ The share is currently not that cheap anymore, but the pipeline earns a premium. Nevertheless, the deterioration of the situation in the allergy-market limits current upside.
____ Given latest share-price declines, we expect a positive reaction, but for the
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C O M P A N Y N E W S C O L L E C T I O N 15.09.2005
S o urce: Tho m s o n Financial Da tas tream
Further data adding to Alvesco’s safety profile